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  1. #11
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    tD&eftwdkuftcHawG wm;jrpfrdefYMum;u qEjy
    15 June 2009

    tD&eforw a&G;aumufyGJrSm 0ifNydKifcJhol jyKjyifajymif;vJa&;0g'D rD,m [lpdef rdkqmAD udk axmufcHol axmifaygif; rsm;pGm wdkYu tpdk;&u ydwfyifxm;wmudk tHwkNyD; wD[D&ef NrdKUawmfrSm tjiif;yGm;zG,f&m a&G;aumufyGJeJY ywfoufNyD; uefYuGuf qEjyaeMuygw,f/

    'DuaeY tJ'Dvdk qEjyyGJ jyKvkyfwJh NrdKUv,facgifrSm t"du&kPf;xdef; &Jrsm;udk tpdk;&u csxm;ayrJh &JawGu [efYwm; jcif;awmh r&Sdygbl;/ qEjyyGJrSm vlawG at;at;aq;aq; &SdzdkY oludk,fwdkif oGm;a&mufr,fvdkY rpwm rdkqmADuvnf; ajymqdkygw,f/

    tD&eforw a&G;aumufyGJeJY ywfoufNyD; tjiif;yGm;rIawGudk w&m;Oya'aMumif;uyJ vkyfaqmifygvdkY bmoma&; acgif;aqmifBuD; t,mwdkvm tmvD[mrD u rpwm [lpdef rdkqmAD udk ajymaMumif; tD&efEkdifiHydkif &kyfoHvTifhu owif;xkwfjyefygw,f/

    aomMumaeY a&G;aumufyGJrSm vuf&Sdorw rmrGwf trm'DeD*suf tEdkif&&SdaMumif; aMunmvdkufvdkY NydKifzuf rdkqmAD udk axmufcHolrsm;u 2 &ufMum qlyl uefYuGufcJhNyD;wJhaemuf tJ'Dowif; xGufvmwmyg/ a&G;aumufyGJ[m vGwfvyfNyD; w&m;rSswygw,fvdkY rpwm trm'DeD*suf u ajymqdkygw,f/

    VOA rS ul;,laz:jyygonf/
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    twdkuftcH orwavmif; rlqmbDudk,fwdkif qEjyyGJ yg0if
    2009.6.15

    w[D&ef NrdKUv,frSm csDwuf qEjyaeMuwJh vltkyfBuD;Mum;rSm twdkuftcH orwavmif; rD,m [lpdef rlqmbD udk,fwdkif yg0ifNyD; csDwuf qEjyaeygw,f/

    tD&efEdkifiHrSm tmPmydkifawGu ydwfyif wm;qD;xm;wJh Mum;xJu rlqmbDudk axmufcHolawG aomif;eJYcsDNyD; w[D&ef NrdKUawmf vrf;rBuD;awGay:rSm qEjyaeMuygw,f/

    vuf&Sd orw tmruf'De*s'f tEdkif&NyD;wJhaemuf a&G;aumufyGJ &v'fawGudk w&m;0ifenf;vrf;eJY pdefac:MuzdkY rpwm rlqmbDudk bmoma&; acgif;aqmif at&mwdkvm cgreDu owday;cJhygw,f/

    rlqmbDudk axmufcHolawGu NAdwdoSseJU jyifopfoH&kH;awGrSm pk&kH;NyD; olUudk axmufcHwJh aMuG;aMumfoHawGeJY atmf[pfaeMuygw,f/

    qEjyorm;awGeJY tmruf'De*s'fudk axmufcHolawGMum; xdyfwdkuf &ifqdkifyGJawG jzpfaew,fvdkYvnf; owif;awG xGufaeygw,f/

    ESpf&ufMum tMurf;zuf qlyl qEjyyGJawG jzpfyGm;cJhNyD;wJhaemuf qlyl qEjyyGJawGudk tm;ay; tm;ajrmufjyKaeol tzsuftarSmifh orm;awGudk xdxda&mufa&muf ta&;,lr,fvdkY jynfxJa&; 0efBuD;Xmeu 'DuaeY owday;vdkufygw,f/

    orw tmruf'De*s'fudk axmufcHwJh armfawmfqdkifu,fpD;orm;awGu qEjyolawGudk wdkufcdkufw,fvdkY owif;awG t& od&ygw,f/

    t&yf0wf jynfolUppfawGudk aoewfeJY ypfcwfzdkY trdefYay;xm;w,fvdkY w[D&ef&Sd bDbDpD owif;axmufu ajymygw,f/

    qEjyorm;awGudk NzdKcGif;zdkY BudK;pm;wJhtcg ausmif;om;awGu AvDausmif;xJ 0ifajy;NyD; ykef;atmif;aeMuygw,f/

    w[D&ef wuodkvf y&0kPf[m tck&ufydkif;twGif; jzpfyGm;aewJh qlyl rNidrfoufrIawG&JU A[dkcsufvJ jzpfygw,f/

    orwavmif; rlqmbD&JU ZeD;uawmh w[D&ef wuodkvf qEjyyGJrSm oGm;a&muf rdefYcGef;ajymcJhygw,f/

    raeYnu w[D&ef &JeJY jynfolUppfawGu ausmif;taqmifawGudk a&Smifwcif 0ifpD;NyD; ausmif;om; trsm;tjym;udk zrf;qD;vdkufygw,f/

    tD&eftpdk;&u bDbDpD &kyfjrifoHMum; tpDtpOfawG? w,fvDzkef;eJY bDbDpD tifwmeuf pmrsufESmawG tm;vHk;udk ydwfqdkYxm;NyD; EdkifiHjcm; owif;axmufawGudkvnf; EdkifiHuae ESifxkwfaeygw,f/

    bDbDpDrS ul;,laz:jyygonf/
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    wevFmaeU wD[D&efwGif vlaygif;odef;csDqEjy



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    -------------------------------------

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    odyfodomygonf/


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  4. #14
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    tmruf'DeD*suf xyfrHta&G;cs,fcH&onfqkdjcif;rSm tqef;r[kwf

    uGef ukdvif;
    trIaqmif EkdifiHwum t,f'Dwm
    a';wDvD*&yfowif;pm


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    Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election in Iran is no surprise

    Con Coughlin


    No one should be surprised that Iran's controversial president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has won re-election to serve a second four year term.
    For all the excitement that was generated last week about Iran having its first proper election since the revolution thirty years ago, I remained deeply sceptical that the hardline conservatives who actually run the country would tolerate any meaningful challenge to their power.
    And so it has proved. Not content with vetting the candidates prior to the campaign so that only those with a proven track record of supporting the Islamic regime were allowed to stand, it now appears the regime has indulged in blatant electoral fraud to ensure Mr Ahmadinejad's victory.
    But then this has been the way Iran's elections have been conducted for a decade or more.
    When Mr Ahmadinejad first came to power in 2005 it was subsequently discovered that the birth certificates of long-dead Iranians had been used to bolster his vote. So don't be surprised if it turns out that his vote in this year's ballot has also been bolstered from beyond the grave.

    Con Coughlin, the Daily Telegraph's executive foreign editor, is a world renowned expert on the Middle East and Islamic terrorism. He regularly broadcasts on television and radio in Britain and America, and is the author of several critically acclaimed books, including Saddam: The Secret Life (a New York Times bestseller) and American Ally: Tony Blair and the War on Terror. His new book, Khomeini's Ghost, a study of the Iranian revolution and its impact on the rise of militant Islam, has just been published by Macmillan.



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    orwavmif; rlqmADrS axmufcHolvltkyfBuD;tm; vufa0SU,rf;EIwfqufpOf


    wevFmaeU wD[D&ef awmfvSefa&;&ifjyif qE
    yGJ


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    See This LINK

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    vuf&SdjzpfyGm;aeaom tD&efqEjyyGJrsm;ukd "r"d|mefusus oHk;oyfxm;wmawGUygw,f/
    George Friedman &JU aqmif;yg;yg/ ipod awmfvSefa&;? t*Fvdyfpum;ajym tkdifayghykdif&SiftD&efrsm;\q
    ErJ ponfpum;vHk;rsm;ukd ESpfoufrdygonf/




    Apparently we all misinterpret what's happening in Iran

    George Friedman


    In 1979, when we were still young and starry-eyed, a revolution took place in Iran. When I asked experts what would happen, they divided into two camps.


    The first group of Iran experts argued that the Shah of Iran would certainly survive, that the unrest was simply a cyclical event readily manageable by his security, and that the Iranian people were united behind the Iranian monarch’s modernization program. These experts developed this view by talking to the same Iranian officials and businessmen they had been talking to for years — Iranians who had grown wealthy and powerful under the shah and who spoke English, since Iran experts frequently didn’t speak Farsi all that well.


    The second group of Iran experts regarded the shah as a repressive brute, and saw the revolution as aimed at liberalizing the country. Their sources were the professionals and academics who supported the uprising — Iranians who knew what former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini believed, but didn’t think he had much popular support. They thought the revolution would result in an increase in human rights and liberty. The experts in this group spoke even less Farsi than the those in the first group.


    Misreading Sentiment in Iran

    Limited to information on Iran from English-speaking opponents of the regime, both groups of Iran experts got a very misleading vision of where the revolution was heading — because the Iranian revolution was not brought about by the people who spoke English. It was made by merchants in city bazaars, by rural peasants, by the clergy — people Americans didn’t speak to because they couldn’t. This demographic was unsure of the virtues of modernization and not at all clear on the virtues of liberalism. From the time they were born, its members knew the virtue of Islam, and that the Iranian state must be an Islamic state.


    Americans and Europeans have been misreading Iran for 30 years. Even after the shah fell, the myth has survived that a mass movement of people exists demanding liberalization — a movement that if encouraged by the West eventually would form a majority and rule the country. We call this outlook “iPod liberalism,” the idea that anyone who listens to rock ‘n’ roll on an iPod, writes blogs and knows what it means to Twitter must be an enthusiastic supporter of Western liberalism. Even more significantly, this outlook fails to recognize that iPod owners represent a small minority in Iran — a country that is poor, pious and content on the whole with the revolution forged 30 years ago.


    There are undoubtedly people who want to liberalize the Iranian regime. They are to be found among the professional classes in Tehran, as well as among students. Many speak English, making them accessible to the touring journalists, diplomats and intelligence people who pass through. They are the ones who can speak to Westerners, and they are the ones willing to speak to Westerners. And these people give Westerners a wildly distorted view of Iran. They can create the impression that a fantastic liberalization is at hand — but not when you realize that iPod-owning Anglophones are not exactly the majority in Iran.


    Last Friday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was re-elected with about two-thirds of the vote. Supporters of his opponent, both inside and outside Iran, were stunned. A poll revealed that former Iranian Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi was beating Ahmadinejad. It is, of course, interesting to meditate on how you could conduct a poll in a country where phones are not universal, and making a call once you have found a phone can be a trial. A poll therefore would probably reach people who had phones and lived in Tehran and other urban areas. Among those, Mousavi probably did win. But outside Tehran, and beyond persons easy to poll, the numbers turned out quite different.


    Some still charge that Ahmadinejad cheated. That is certainly a possibility, but it is difficult to see how he could have stolen the election by such a large margin. Doing so would have required the involvement of an incredible number of people, and would have risked creating numbers that quite plainly did not jibe with sentiment in each precinct. Widespread fraud would mean that Ahmadinejad manufactured numbers in Tehran without any regard for the vote. But he has many powerful enemies who would quickly have spotted this and would have called him on it. Mousavi still insists he was robbed, and we must remain open to the possibility that he was, although it is hard to see the mechanics of this.


    Ahmadinejad’s Popularity

    It also misses a crucial point: Ahmadinejad enjoys widespread popularity. He doesn’t speak to the issues that matter to the urban professionals, namely, the economy and liberalization. But Ahmadinejad speaks to three fundamental issues that accord with the rest of the country.


    First, Ahmadinejad speaks of piety. Among vast swathes of Iranian society, the willingness to speak unaffectedly about religion is crucial. Though it may be difficult for Americans and Europeans to believe, there are people in the world to whom economic progress is not of the essence; people who want to maintain their communities as they are and live the way their grandparents lived. These are people who see modernization — whether from the shah or Mousavi — as unattractive. They forgive Ahmadinejad his economic failures.


    Second, Ahmadinejad speaks of corruption. There is a sense in the countryside that the ayatollahs — who enjoy enormous wealth and power, and often have lifestyles that reflect this — have corrupted the Islamic Revolution. Ahmadinejad is disliked by many of the religious elite precisely because he has systematically raised the corruption issue, which resonates in the countryside.


    Third, Ahmadinejad is a spokesman for Iranian national security, a tremendously popular stance. It must always be remembered that Iran fought a war with Iraq in the 1980s that lasted eight years, cost untold lives and suffering, and effectively ended in its defeat. Iranians, particularly the poor, experienced this war on an intimate level. They fought in the war, and lost husbands and sons in it. As in other countries, memories of a lost war don’t necessarily delegitimize the regime. Rather, they can generate hopes for a resurgent Iran, thus validating the sacrifices made in that war — something Ahmadinejad taps into. By arguing that Iran should not back down but become a major power, he speaks to the veterans and their families, who want something positive to emerge from all their sacrifices in the war.


    Perhaps the greatest factor in Ahmadinejad’s favor is that Mousavi spoke for the better districts of Tehran — something akin to running a U.S. presidential election as a spokesman for Georgetown and the Lower East Side. Such a base will get you hammered, and Mousavi got hammered. Fraud or not, Ahmadinejad won and he won significantly. That he won is not the mystery; the mystery is why others thought he wouldn’t win.


    For a time on Friday, it seemed that Mousavi might be able to call for an uprising in Tehran. But the moment passed when Ahmadinejad’s security forces on motorcycles intervened. And that leaves the West with its worst-case scenario: a democratically elected anti-liberal.


    Western democracies assume that publics will elect liberals who will protect their rights. In reality, it’s a more complicated world. Hitler is the classic example of someone who came to power constitutionally, and then preceded to gut the constitution. Similarly, Ahmadinejad’s victory is a triumph of both democracy and repression.


    The Road Ahead: More of the Same

    The question now is what will happen next. Internally, we can expect Ahmadinejad to consolidate his position under the cover of anti-corruption. He wants to clean up the ayatollahs, many of whom are his enemies. He will need the support of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This election has made Ahmadinejad a powerful president, perhaps the most powerful in Iran since the revolution. Ahmadinejad does not want to challenge Khamenei, and we suspect that Khamenei will not want to challenge Ahmadinejad. A forced marriage is emerging, one which may place many other religious leaders in a difficult position.


    Certainly, hopes that a new political leadership would cut back on Iran’s nuclear program have been dashed. The champion of that program has won, in part because he championed the program. We still see Iran as far from developing a deliverable nuclear weapon, but certainly the Obama administration’s hopes that Ahmadinejad would either be replaced — or at least weakened and forced to be more conciliatory — have been crushed. Interestingly, Ahmadinejad sent congratulations to U.S. President Barack Obama on his inauguration. We would expect Obama to reciprocate under his opening policy, which U.S. Vice President Joe Biden appears to have affirmed, assuming he was speaking for Obama. Once the vote fraud issue settles, we will have a better idea of whether Obama’s policies will continue. (We expect they will.)


    What we have now are two presidents in a politically secure position, something that normally forms a basis for negotiations. The problem is that it is not clear what the Iranians are prepared to negotiate on, nor is it clear what the Americans are prepared to give the Iranians to induce them to negotiate. Iran wants greater influence in Iraq and its role as a regional leader acknowledged, something the United States doesn’t want to give them. The United States wants an end to the Iranian nuclear program, which Iran doesn’t want to give.


    On the surface, this would seem to open the door for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Former U.S. President George W. Bush did not — and Obama does not — have any appetite for such an attack. Both presidents blocked the Israelis from attacking, assuming the Israelis ever actually wanted to attack.


    For the moment, the election appears to have frozen the status quo in place. Neither the United States nor Iran seem prepared to move significantly, and there are no third parties that want to get involved in the issue beyond the occasional European diplomatic mission or Russian threat to sell something to Iran. In the end, this shows what we have long known: This game is locked in place, and goes on.


    ----------------------------------------------------

    George Friedman is Chief Executive of STRATFOR, a private global intelligence firm he founded in 1996. Prior to joining the private sector, Friedman spent almost twenty years in academia, teaching political science at inson College. During this time he also regularly briefed senior commanders in the armed services as well as the Office of Net Assessments, SHAPE Technical Center, the U.S. Army War College, National Defense University and the RAND CorporationHungary to Holocaust survivors, his family fled Hungary when he was a child to escape the Communist regime, settling first in a camp for displaced persons in Austria and then immigrating to the United States. Friedman, who attended public schools in New York City, describes his family’s story as, “a very classic story of refugees making a new life in America." Friedman was an early designer of computerized war games. In 1994 he founded the Center for Geopolitical Studies at Louisiana State University, which engaged in integrated economic, political and military modeling on security and national defense matters. Friedman’s childhood was shaped directly by international conflict: he was born in and forecasting. The Center was the only non-governmental organization that was at that time granted access to Joint Theater Level Simulation by the Joint Warfighting Center.


    Friedman pursued political philosophy, with his early work focusing on Marxism, as well as international conflict, including examining the U.S.-Soviet relationship from a military perspective. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Friedman studied the potential for a U.S.-Japan conflict, in 1991 co-authoring The Coming War with Japan. He is also the author or coauthor of books examining topics as diverse as the Frankfurt School and warfare, including The Future of War, The Intelligence Edge and America’s Secret War.


    He received a B.A. from the City College of New York, where he majored in political science, and a Ph.D. in Government from Cornell University.

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    Mossad chief: Civil unrest in Iran will end soon

    Dagan downplays significance of riots in protest of Ahmadinejad's disputed reelection, says 'what matters is Khamenei's position, which hasn't changed'; adds: Iran will have ready-to-launch nuclear bomb if its program not disrupted

    Amnon Meranda


    The civil unrest that has followed the disputed re-election of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will not continue much longer, Mossad chief Meir Dagan estimated on Tuesday.

    Speaking before the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Dagan downplayed the significance of the riots, saying they were taking place only in Tehran and one other province.

    According to the Mossad chief, the irregularities and forgeries reported during the elections were similar to those "in any democratic country."

    "What matters is the position of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and that hasn't changed," he told the MKs. "The dispute is taking place among the Iranian elite."

    Iranian state television reported Tuesday that the country's top legislative body, the Guardian Council, was ready to recount disputed ballot boxes from last week's presidential election.

    The council said the recount may lead to changes in candidates' tally, according to the television report.

    Press TV said the council had agreed for a recount of disputed ballot boxes in the election. Defeated candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi has appealed to the council for the election to be annulled, but has said he was not optimistic about its verdict.

    On Monday Defense Minister Ehud Barak said "I'm not sure if the (election) results reflect the real will of the Iranian people.

    "The triumph of the extremists is bad news, as any kind of victory of extremists should be defined," Barak told journalists at the Paris Air Show in Le Bourget.

    As for Iran's nuclear aspirations, Dagan said it may have a ready-to-launch nuclear bomb by the end of 2014 unless its nuclear program is disrupted "on a technological level."

    He stressed that a nuclear Iran would pose a "serious existential threat on the State of Israel's existence" and that the threat "must be removed."

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